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Explanation

The core idea in one line, and where it fails

WEweizh· 5 days ago

Causal effect = comparison of potential outcomes for the same units under treatment vs control; the 'fundamental problem' is we only ever observe one. Randomization makes the unobserved counterfactual exchangeable; observational studies have to assume it. It fails exactly when an unmeasured common cause drives both treatment and outcome.

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